NASCAR at Dover odds, key stats, bets to consider: Three drivers to fade in Monday’s matchups

There is no other track in NASCAR quite like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete monitor in Delaware has high banks and multiple grooves, similar to Bristol’s half-mile design but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a unique track, but outcomes from Bristol should be taken into consideration, as well as tracks that have utilized the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct package this year (more on this below).
It doesn’t appear to matter where NASCAR races this past year, Kyle Busch has been among the top-3 favorites, and he’s the No. 1 power-rated driver for oddsmakers. Busch isn’t only directing the Cup Series in victories (three) this year, but his 10 straight top-10 finishes to begin the year has only been accomplished by four other drivers, rather than since Morgan Shepherd in 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and hard to fade considering he’s 17 top-10s, including 12 top-5s, in his final 28 series starts at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 was postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, a week’s winner in Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson were the only two drivers to get their futures odds to win the Cup Series championship corrected this week. Both drivers are worth fading in the matchups (listed below), however.
Elliott is the harder market believing he’s the most recent winner in the Monster Mile and contains five top-5 endings in six string races in Dover, but Chevrolet has been very disappointing this year outside the superspeedways and we like to fade drivers away wins.
Larson, who has not won a race in the Cup level because the 2017 fall race in Richmond, proceeded from 20/1 to 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race at Dover sitting outside of the playoff standings in 21st. Talladega’s wreck marked the third time in six races Larson has shattered out of a race. Other results throughout this span include a 12th-place revealing at Fontana, 18th-place at Martinsville and 19th in Bristol.
Dover rules package, recent results
For the fifth time this year, Cup drivers will race using an engine-producing 750-horsepower without a aero ducts. The four previous races were Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, together with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski leading 446 of all 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 fall: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 autumn: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 autumn: Martin Truex, Jr..
Curious to win Gander RV 400 in Dover
Opening odds Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups in Dover
Opening odds Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Brad KESELOWSKI +120
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR at Dover stakes Opening possibilities Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We mentioned fading Elliott above and our pick to beat him is Hamlin, who’s enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth in all four races with Sunday’s bundle and has five top-10 endings in the previous six Dover races, such as a runner-up last fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex includes five top-10s and four top-5s at the last six Dover races, leading 387 laps in that time. Truex also finished second at Phoenix with this bundle and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. Even though Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he’s been 19th at Phoenix, 18th at Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time champion Johnson returns to the site of the latest success, where he’s the game’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. But Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has fought the last two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favourite track, and he is averaging a 6.7 complete over four starts. The Mexico native owns the fourth-best typical running position among active drivers at Dover and has the third-most laps in the top 15.

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