BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
There’s a lot of money to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I will be going heavier than usual this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than usual. This is actually the first time we have seen a 30k top prize so I believe it is well worth chasing if you have the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the fight against Brian Ortega, so we’re now down to 11 battles and we ought to observe a lot of ties on this card together with the more popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so that you can distinguish yourself from the rest of the area. With that said, let us get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is far off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass in cash games which makes Felder the»free square» this week. Even if he loses this battle, he should be highly owned it won’t even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so perhaps consider preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the money game play of the week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird since I just picked Paul Felder because my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all don’t care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups didn’t possess him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that’s half of the area that is dead without a chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% simply due to this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a win using the low owned guy to set you at a much better location of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it truly shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight happened 5 years ago, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this battle standing for many the struggle which will give him a big edge. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and if he’s taken I think he is going to be able to get back up if he is not able to get a entry of his own. In case Pettis can win a decision then I think he will pay off his DK cost and will be a good underdog to use so you can save salary on your lineups. I may even find this battle ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a body kick and if this happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the struggle, but I do not find him paying off that large price tag. He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins as well as the floor is where he’ll have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his wages this week I need at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I would rather cover the men higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, making him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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